Poor retail numbers hint at rate pause

A worse-than-expected retail trade result for September increases the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may leave interest rates unchanged in December, economists say.

Australian retail trade at current prices fell 0.2 per cent in September to a seasonally adjusted $19.719 billion, from $19.753 billion in August, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said on Wednesday.

Over the September quarter, retail sales fell by 0.4 per cent to $56.959 billion in seasonally adjusted volume terms.

The median market forecast was for retail sales to have risen by 0.5 per cent in the month and to have fallen 0.4 per cent in the quarter.

Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan said that the retail trade figures show that economic recovery is fragile and a gradual withdrawal of the government's economic stimulus remains appropriate.

"As I've been saying for some time, our recovery remains fragile and there are still some hefty challenges out there," Mr Swan said in a brief statement.

"Despite the improved outlook in our region, a sustained recovery in the major advanced economies is by no means assured."

The mid-year budget review, released on Monday, showed unemployment is still expected to rise substantially, and that's assuming the stimulus remains in place.

"For these reasons we judge that the planned gradual withdrawal of stimulus remains appropriate after it reached its peak impact in the June quarter this year," Mr Swan said.

"Those who advocate ripping out stimulus risk stalling the recovery and sending unemployment and business failure through the roof."

ICAP economist Adam Carr said the unexpected drop in the volatile data series was the result of seasonal adjustments.

"I think coming after a fairly decent print in August, the monthly sales number doesn't mean too much," he said.

"It doesn't indicate a change in trend given the series' monthly volatility.

"That said, I don't think the RBA will look at this as a reason to tighten at a faster or more aggressive pace."

On Tuesday the RBA raised the cash interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50 per cent.

It was the RBA's second rate rise in as many months.

"The data really does hammer home the point that the RBA will be gradual in its tightening cycle, I think, Mr Carr said.

ANZ economist Alex Joiner said the high levels of consumer confidence that were seen in September had not translated into spending.

"I suppose that's something that will give the RBA some scope for pausing on rate hikes in December," he said.

"The fall was unexpected but it was fairly broad based. Where the falls fell in most major categories, they gained in August.

"So we might have seen the last of the fiscal stimulus package-fuelled gains in retail trade."

He also predicted household spending over the next three months - the December quarter - would fall back and drag on the nation's economic growth.

However, he did not predict a contraction in the September quarter gross domestic product, data for which is due in December.

"We still are (predicting growth) because other things have been better than expected," he said.

"It's not going to be a sharp bounce, we think it will be fairly modest growth in the quarter.

RBC capital markets economist Su-Lin Ong said Australia could expect softer third quarter growth after following the retail figures, but she doubted the poor numbers would have surprised the RBA.

"The 0.4 per cent decline in retail sales volumes in the third quarter point to a 0.1 per cent detraction from growth," she said in a research note.

"Together with a likely detraction from net exports, hint at a flat, possibly negative, quarter of growth."

But Ms Ong said the data did not detract from her view that the RBA would lift rates a further 25 basis points in December.

She said the cash rate is heading towards 5.00 per cent by the end of 2010.

"At 3.50 per cent, the cash rate remains too low for an economy that is returning to a trend pace of growth against the backdrop of a strong China," she said.

"Governor Stevens delivers a key speech tomorrow night and is likely to be wearing his hawkish colours while the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP) on Friday will show further upward revisions to the RBA's growth and inflation forecasts."